Global ad-spend forecasts for 2019 have slipped to 3.6% globally, while Canadian forecasts are on the rise at 5.3%

Ad-spend growth is poised for continued acceleration in Canada, with forecasts rising to 5.7% in 2020; Digital continues to power ad spend growth globally and is forecast to grow 11.5% in 2019, increasing to a nearly 45% share in 2020; Rapid mobile growth to continue (+21.4%) with nearly a third of global ad-spend delivered through mobile platforms by the end of 2020

Dentsu Aegis Network’s latest advertising spend forecast, based on data from 59 markets, predicts global growth will reach +3.6% in 2019, following growth of 4.3% in 2018, taking total investment to US$609.9 billion. The Canadian market is experiencing stronger momentum compared to the global average with anticipated growth by +5.3% totalling CDN$12.8 billion in 2019.

“We’re seeing that digital ad spend continues to lead growth in the Canadian market accounting for more than half of all anticipated ad spend in 2019,” said Hisham Ghostine, President of Media Brands, Dentsu Aegis Network Canada. “As a digital-first agency, we’re well positioned to deliver long-term, sustainable and integrated brand solutions to clients that will put them ahead of the curve when it comes to capitalizing on the continued expansion of technology to deliver meaningful content that resonates with the right audiences.”

Market trends

Asia Pacific and North America are forecast to grow 4.0% and 3.2% respectively. Western Europe will grow 2.8% with faster growth in Central & Eastern Europe at 4.9%. There is strong growth in Latin America at 9.1%.

Canada: Ad spend growth is primarily driven by digital which holds a 50.6% share of total ad spend and is forecast to grow 8.6% in 2019. Growth has also been revised up since January 2019 for two media categories including outdoor from 9.7% in January to 9.9% and Radio from 0.0% in January to 0.9%. The forecast for 2020 is CDN$13.5B, with growth driven by the continued positive outlook for television with stronger measurement tools entering the market, OOH with the growth and availability of digital outlets, and the overall digital landscape.

UK: Despite the continued uncertainty around Brexit, the UK market is resilient and has been upgraded from our previous forecasts to grow 6.3% in 2019. The UK is also on track for a tenth consecutive year of double-digit growth in digital advertising spend. The digital maturity of the UK market is one of the reasons it has proved more resilient to geopolitical uncertainty and possible growth-slowing impact of Brexit.

Brazil: for June Brazil sees a significant revision upwards to 8.8% growth in 2019 driven by the mobile, which will make Brazil the largest digital market in Latin America. Economic and social uncertainty remain due to the political issues of the new government.

Media trends

Digital continues to power ad spend growth in Canada and globally and is forecast to grow 11.5% in 2019 to reach US$249.7 billion and 41.8% of global share. Growth is steady into 2020 putting digital’s share of ad spend at nearly 45% by the end of the year.

Mobile is the fastest growing platform within digital and is forecast to grow 21.4% in 2019. Powering this growth is the increasing consumption of video on mobile – from Instagram Stories and Snapchat to YouTube and VOD – with online video in general set to grow 20.5% in 2019.

TV ad-spend is forecast to shrink slightly in 2019 (-0.1%) with a return to modest growth in 2020 of 0.6%. Into 2020 growth will be driven by more dynamic TV opportunities and innovation as the penetration of smart TVs continues.

The decline of traditional print has accelerated from our January 2019 forecasts (Newspapers -7.7% and Magazines -7.4%) as digital continues to dominate.

Out of Home sees continued growth and an upwards revision from January to 4.3% in 2019 to reach 6.3% share. Growth is driven by innovations in DOOH.

Figures in brackets show our previous forecasts from Jan 2019

Figure 1: Growth in global advertising spend 2018-20f

YEAR ON YEAR % GROWTH AT CURRENT PRICES

2018a

2019f

2020f

GLOBAL

4.3 (4.1)

3.6 (3.8)

4.1 (4.3)

NORTH AMERICA

3.3 (3.4)

3.2 (3.1)

3.7 (3.6)

USA

3.4 (3.4)

3.1 (3.0)

3.6 (3.6)

CANADA

2.7 (3.7)

5.3 (5.2)

5.7 (5.1)

W. EUROPE

4.1 (3.4)

2.8 (3.2)

3.1 (3.3)

UK

8.6 (6.5)

6.3 (6.1)

6.6 (7.1)

GERMANY

0.2 (1.0)

0.4 (0.5)

0.5 (0.5)

FRANCE

5.3 (3.6)

3.6 (3.1)

3.0 (2.5)

ITALY

2.0 (1.6)

-1.6 (0.8)

0.6 (1.6)

SPAIN

2.1 (1.8)

0.5 (1.2)

0.4 (0.8)

C&EE

8.6 (8.6)

4.9 (5.8)

5.6 (6.2)

RUSSIA

12.3 (12.0)

4.5 (6.9)

5.8 (6.7)

ASIA PACIFIC

5.3 (4.6)

4.0 (4.5)

4.9 (4.9)

AUSTRALIA

6.6 (3.7)

1.9 (2.4)

3.2 (2.6)

CHINA

7.7 (7.8)

5.4 (7.0)

6.9 (6.4)

INDIA

10.8 (9.6)

11.4 (10.6)

12.2 (11.6)

JAPAN

2.2 (0.2)

1.2 (0.6)

1.8 (2.4)

LATIN AMERICA

7.9 (9.9)

9.1 (7.9)

6.1 (8.6)

BRAZIL

7.1 (7.1)

8.8 (3.6)

4.5 (6.2)

Figures in brackets show our previous forecasts from Jan 2019

Figure 2: Share of global ad spend by media, 2018-20 (% y-o-y)

2018a

2019f

2020f

TELEVISION

34.9 (35.4)

33.6 (34.1)

32.4 (33.2)

NEWSPAPERS

8.0 (8.0)

7.1 (7.1)

6.3 (6.3)

MAGAZINES

5.0 (5.0)

4.5 (4.5)

4.0 (4.1)

RADIO

6.2 (6.2)

6.1 (6.0)

5.9 (5.8)

CINEMA

0.6 (0.6)

0.6 (0.6)

0.6 (0.6)

OOH

6.3 (6.3)

6.3 (6.3)

6.3 (6.2)

DIGITAL

39.0 (38.5)

41.8 (41.4)

44.5 (43.8)

Figures in brackets show our previous forecasts from Jan 2019

Figure 2: Share of global ad spend by media, 2018-20 (% y-o-y)

Figures in brackets show our previous forecasts from Jan 2019

Dentsu Aegis Network Canada Innovates the Way Brands Are Built for clients through best-in-class capabilities in media, digital, data and creative communications services. The network’s focus on the digital economy and the distinctive products and services are delivered through agencies Amnet, Amplifi, Carat, Cardinal Path, DentsuBos, dentsu X, GRIP, ICUC, iProspect, Isobar, John Brown Media, MKTG, The StoryLab and Vizeum. As one of the top ten global Dentsu Aegis markets, the Canadian team is headquartered in Toronto and serves clients through a national network of offices in Vancouver, Calgary, Montreal, Saint John and Halifax with nearly 1,500 dedicated specialists.

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